Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-20 259.459096 317.417175 389.718973 488.216127 621.593172 8.000309e+02 1.064196e+03
2025-07-27 198.135660 266.118758 362.535543 515.123610 762.595228 1.172810e+03 1.967005e+03
2025-08-03 161.392561 231.010864 339.042905 530.157169 887.953770 1.601962e+03 3.395701e+03
2025-08-10 135.784252 203.661322 316.353929 533.910348 992.640557 2.072699e+03 5.589855e+03
2025-08-17 115.533047 179.439000 291.117872 522.011872 1058.773257 2.519363e+03 8.645788e+03
2025-08-24 100.092736 159.878192 268.808989 507.315100 1110.845199 2.987111e+03 1.318871e+04
2025-08-31 87.976545 143.826516 249.206700 491.561728 1152.672381 3.480238e+03 2.007107e+04
2025-09-07 84.278239 142.281600 257.219800 540.912411 1406.725514 5.124954e+03 4.913561e+04
2025-09-14 77.399421 133.513709 248.465463 546.493577 1533.100973 6.479182e+03 1.013860e+05
2025-09-21 72.648486 128.133101 245.798352 567.258202 1731.253311 8.737397e+03 2.857009e+05
2025-09-28 66.950177 120.003196 235.402816 563.253076 1835.490400 1.074305e+04 7.920203e+05
2025-10-05 65.555470 120.546323 245.119605 622.433437 2269.549737 1.753758e+04 1.846626e+07
2025-10-12 63.406858 119.409283 251.233967 676.089227 2766.961147 2.953147e+04 NaN
2025-10-19 60.720008 116.716762 252.994788 717.182055 3272.372546 4.943387e+04 NaN
2025-10-26 57.560753 112.504971 249.934049 740.296588 3718.060613 7.975074e+04 NaN
2025-11-02 54.138952 107.231685 242.980724 746.081175 4066.432839 1.225380e+05 NaN
2025-11-09 50.339300 100.615031 231.118705 727.740787 4207.125997 1.667352e+05 NaN
2025-11-16 46.826904 94.314030 219.167388 705.166315 4293.040207 2.217661e+05 NaN
2025-11-23 43.641352 88.482795 207.699663 681.065995 4343.258663 2.912284e+05 NaN
2025-11-30 43.336796 89.689554 217.281990 756.897422 5631.629700 1.119718e+06 NaN
2025-12-07 41.378900 86.523648 212.991802 765.534000 6193.835846 2.777885e+06 NaN
2025-12-14 40.074250 84.883164 213.219938 797.771780 7219.524374 1.585730e+07 NaN
2025-12-21 38.097126 81.296015 206.615789 791.540830 7669.284077 8.326321e+07 NaN